Metals generally rose, polysilicon hit the daily price limit, alumina and silicon metal rose by more than 4%, and the ferrous metals series all rose by more than 1% [SMM Daily Review]

SMM reported on July 2:

Metals Market:

As of daytime session close, domestic market base metals generally rose with only SHFE zinc declining 0.11%. SHFE copper and SHFE nickel both gained over 0.6%, with copper up 0.65% and nickel up 0.69%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.36% while other metals showed relatively small fluctuations. Alumina main contract surged 4.42%, and aluminum casting main contract rose 0.45%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract jumped 3.19%, silicon metal main contract gained 4.79%, and polysilicon main contract soared 6.99% to hit its first daily limit up since futures listing! Ocean freight main contract rose 1.67%.

》Daily Limit Surge! Polysilicon Futures Hit First Limit Up Since Listing - What Happened? [SMM Flash News]

Ferrous metals series collectively rallied with all gains exceeding 1%. Stainless steel rose 1.08% and iron ore gained 1.69%. Rebar and HRC both rose over 2% - rebar up 2.61% and HRC up 2.24%. Coking coal and coke both surged over 3%, with coking coal up 3.18% and coke up 3.15%.

Overseas market: As of 15:04, most overseas base metals declined except LME zinc (-0.2%) and LME tin (-0.58%). Other metals showed relatively small fluctuations.

Precious metals: As of 15:04, COMEX gold fell 0.27% and COMEX silver dropped 0.55%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.7% and SHFE silver gained 0.09%.

Market snapshot as of 15:04 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Updates:

[Business Volume Maintains Expansion - China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index Rises Slightly MoM in June] China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released June's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index today (July 2). With continued demand improvement, logistics business volume maintained expansion and prosperity level further increased. The index reached 50.8% in June, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. Sub-indices showed business volume index stayed in expansion territory for four consecutive months this year. Regionally, central and western regions outperformed national average. Sector-wise, road transport, rail transport, air transport, and postal/express delivery sectors all maintained expansion. Driven by e-commerce shopping and seasonal fresh/cold chain demand, postal/express and air transport sectors recorded significant expansions with business volume indices at 69.3% and 52% respectively. (CCTV News)

The People's Bank of China conducted 98.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today with an interest rate of 1.4%. As 365.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 266.8 billion yuan was realized on the day.

►The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on July 2 was 7.1546 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:04, the US dollar index rose by 0.23% to 96.86. Fed Chairman Powell delivered a highly anticipated speech at the central bank forum held in Sintra, Portugal, on Tuesday (July 1), conveying a series of key messages on the US economy, monetary policy, and the controversy surrounding the Fed's independence. Facing pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates immediately and significantly, Powell demonstrated a steady policy stance, emphasizing the need to "wait and see more data" before cutting interest rates, especially the impact of tariffs on inflation. Fed Chairman Powell said he could not determine whether it was too early to consider an interest rate cut in July. He would not rule out any meeting, and it would depend on the data. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday that he believed the Fed's interest rate cut might not be later than September. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the eurozone's May unemployment rate, the number of job cuts by US companies in June as reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, and the change in the US ADP employment figure for June will be released. It is noteworthy that the European Central Bank held a central bank forum in Sintra.

Crude oil:

As of 15:04, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down by 0.18% and Brent oil down by 0.13%. The market weighed the prospects of increased supply from major oil-producing countries next month, a weaker US dollar, and a series of mixed economic and market indicators released by the US, the world's largest oil consumer.

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories rose last week, while distillate inventories fell. The report indicated that US crude oil inventories increased by 680,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels in the week ending June 27. Priyanka Sachdeva, a senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, said, "Today's oil price movements are driven by a combination of factors, including the potential increase in OPEC+ supply, confusing US inventory signals, uncertainties in the geopolitical outlook, and ambiguous macro policies. However, the planned production increase by OPEC+ has already been priced in by investors and is unlikely to catch the market off guard again anytime soon."

OPEC+ is expected to raise crude oil production in August by a similar magnitude to the significant production increase agreement reached in May, June, and July. Four OPEC+ sources said last week that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day at its meeting on July 6. The market has already observed the results of OPEC+'s previous production increases. Data from Kpler shows that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, increased its oil shipments by 450,000 barrels per day in June compared to May, reaching the highest level in over a year.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its official weekly crude oil inventory report at 22:30 Beijing time on Wednesday.(Comprehensive Wenhua)

SMM Daily Review

►Aluminum prices remain elevated while aluminum scrap market stays calm [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review]

►[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] July 2: Nickel salt prices hold steady

►[SMM MHP Daily Review] July 2: Indonesian MHP prices edge higher

►Silver prices consolidate as spot premiums remain stable [SMM Daily Review]

►Downstream enterprises purchase as needed amid weak rare earth market transactions [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]